Every NFL season sparks fresh hope, and history supports that optimism. Since the 2002 divisional realignment, 25 teams have leapt from last place to the top of their division in just one year. That storyline took a break in 2024, but a few teams in 2025 seem poised to revive it.
Whether it’s young quarterbacks maturing, rosters healing, or schedules easing up, these seven bottom-dwellers from last season have a real shot at redemption. Let’s break down who’s best positioned to bounce back — and who might still be stuck in the basement.
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers — Loaded and Ready to Strike Again
The 49ers are no ordinary 6-11 team. Despite that record, they ranked ninth in ESPN’s FPI and 14th in DVOA. Their 6.7% DVOA rating wasn’t just above average. It was the highest ever recorded by an 11-loss team since 1978. The reason? Injuries.
San Francisco led the NFL in adjusted games lost, missing stars like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams for extended stretches. Healthier now and backed by the easiest projected schedule in the league, the Niners have +165 odds to win the NFC West — the highest among all worst-place teams from 2024.
Among this list of NFL teams, San Francisco is a team that won’t face many elite defenses outside their division. They get soft landings with the Giants, Browns, and Bears on the slate, avoiding matchups against powerhouses like the Eagles and Ravens. With their core healthy and talent stacked on both sides of the ball, the 49ers are the closest thing to a lock for a rebound.
NFC North: Chicago Bears — High Ceiling, Tough Road
The Bears’ 5-12 record belied their long-term potential. Caleb Williams is no longer a wide-eyed rookie, and his development will be key in 2025. With improved protection up front and an offensive-minded head coach, Ben Johnson, taking the reins, Chicago has begun reshaping its identity.
The optimism, though, comes with a caveat: the second-hardest schedule in the league. All three NFC North foes reached the playoffs last year, and only the Vikings are expected to regress. Outside the division, the Bears face AFC North bruisers and NFC East contenders. Road trips to San Francisco and Las Vegas don’t help either.
Still, FPI gives Chicago +550 odds to top the NFC North. With the offense improving and the defense holding firm, they’re a risky but compelling bounce-back bet.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints — In the Mix by Default
Sometimes opportunity knocks simply because the neighborhood is weak. The Saints are dead last in FPI, yet their +1200 divisional odds outshine teams with more talent. That’s because the NFC South remains the NFL’s softest landing pad. None of its teams crack the top 13 in FPI, and New Orleans could sneak through the cracks, even with a roster in transition.
With Derek Carr retired, rookie Tyler Shough could be the new QB1. But as a second-round pick, expectations remain low. Worse still, the Saints’ defense — once a strength — now projects as the league’s worst.
Veterans like Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis are aging, and there’s little fresh talent to offset the slide. In reality, the Saints’ best shot at bouncing back lies more so with their schedule than their skill.
NFC East: New York Giants — Brutal Schedule Crushes Optimism
After a 3-14 showing, the Giants upgraded at quarterback, in quantity if not quality. They’ll roll into 2025 with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and rookie Jaxson Dart battling for reps. Add a more aggressive pass rush featuring Abdul Carter, and there are signs of growth.
There’s a glaring problem: the hardest schedule in the NFL. Their division is stacked, and matchups with the AFC West and NFC North won’t make things easier. Throw in games against the surging Patriots and 49ers, and any hope of a miracle turnaround dims.
Despite improvements, the Giants’ +2400 division odds and 10.1% playoff shot reflect the reality — better, but boxed in. Check the up-to-date standings to monitor how New York stacks up as the season progresses.
AFC East: New England Patriots — Rebuilt, Not Reborn
Drake Maye gave Patriots fans something to believe in with a 58.6 QBR in 2024 — good for 17th among qualifiers. He’ll be flanked this year by an upgraded supporting cast, including rookie linemen, explosive skill players, and a rebuilt secondary. With Mike Vrabel now patrolling the sideline, leadership no longer feels like a liability.
New England’s odds to win the AFC East sit at +500. The Pats also benefit from the 28th-ranked schedule in terms of projected opponent DVOA. If you’re tracking NFL game matchups and prop insights, this team’s trajectory is one to watch.
As promising as the pieces are, the path still runs through Buffalo. The Bills hold the highest projected division-winning odds in the NFL at -250. So while the Patriots look better, a division title might be a stretch. A wild-card berth, though? That’s in play.
AFC South: Tennessee Titans — A Rookie Reset
Tennessee has gone all in on a rebuild, and Cameron Ward is their future. The first overall pick will start immediately, and while rookie struggles are expected, even mediocrity would be an upgrade from last year. Will Levis had the NFL’s lowest QBR among qualifying quarterbacks in 2024, so the bar is low.
That said, the Titans’ real issues lie on defense. Ranked 30th in projected DVOA, they’ve failed to replenish talent through the draft. L’Jarius Sneed could offer stability in the secondary, but the team hasn’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2019. Tennessee’s +750 odds at an AFC South title reflect the uphill battle, but small progress is still likely.
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders — Better, but Not There Yet
No team in the AFC West has dethroned the Chiefs in recent memory, and the Raiders are unlikely to break that trend. Still, Geno Smith’s arrival adds competence at quarterback, which should raise the team’s floor. At 4-13 last season, Vegas was far from a contender, but they weren’t hopeless.
Although FPI gives them +1200 odds to win the division, their 23.9% playoff probability ranks fourth among these worst-to-first hopefuls. That’s a nod to both Geno’s reliability and a solid receiving corps. However, the AFC West is brutal. The Chiefs are still elite, and the Broncos and Chargers are coming off playoff runs. Vegas may surprise, but only if others stumble.
The Road to Redemption Begins
Not every team can script a Houston-style turnaround. Injuries, rookie growing pains, and brutal schedules will keep many of these clubs anchored near the bottom. That said, history says at least one could rise.
Keep an eye on the 49ers, whose blend of talent, experience, and schedule strength makes them a legitimate worst-to-first threat. The Bears and Patriots also carry upside if their young quarterbacks can take the next step. Betting on the bounce-back is rarely a sure thing but in the NFL, it’s always worth the gamble.
*Content reflects information available as of [02/07/2025]; subject to change.